Will I pay tariffs after the sale on a <$200 watch from AliExpress in the USA

I'm interested in a few things on AliExpress but wondering if I'll have to pay fees to UPS/FedEX/USPS after the sale. I've searched but can't seem to get a definitive answer on this. A few of the threads I've seen are several months old and things are changing all the time. Does anyone know for sure? At least for June 2025?